Run the cold.
Fourteen weeks to sell the first winter trainer built on the prairies. One thing needed from you: approve the media plan by Friday 30 July.
Prepared by
Portage Main, Winnipeg
In market
18 Oct 2027 to 21 Jan 2028
Decision
CA$412,000 media
The plan in numbers
These are targets, set against your 14,300 pre-order list and the 2.0x ROAS from last winter's test. We don't guarantee them. We report against them every week.
0 wk
In market
0
Model 01 pairs target
0.0x
Blended ROAS target
CA$0K
Media, paid by you
Three flights, one trigger
A short seed, a loud launch, then spend that follows the weather across eleven cold-city markets.
Seed: 4 to 15 October
Sixty runners in Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Minneapolis post from their own winter routes. Your pre-order list gets first access. Spend stays low: this flight proves the hook before we scale it.
Launch burst: 18 October to 12 November
Vertical video across Meta, TikTok and YouTube Shorts, with paid amplification of the best creator cuts. This is the loudest flight, and we kill the weakest third of creative every Tuesday.
Cold snap: 29 November to 21 January
Spend switches on city by city when the five-day forecast drops below minus twenty. Between snaps, we hold at always-on levels, so the budget lands when the shoe is the obvious answer.
Where the CA$412,000 goes
This is media only. Our signed fee of CA$168,750 sits outside these numbers, and the ad accounts stay in Thirty Below's name.
Media by channel
Percent of the total media budget
Media by flight
CA$, including the unallocated reserve
From approval to final report
Everything hangs off 30 July. Approve later and the shoot slips, because the cold chamber is booked for 9 August and has no other slot before September.
Cold-chamber shoot and 24 vertical cuts
Creator contracts and seeding, 60 runners
Pre-order page and Klaviyo flows
Seed flight
Launch burst across paid social and creators, all eleven markets
Geo holdout read, first incrementality result
Creative refresh from holdout findings
Weather-triggered flights, eleven markets
Final report and LTV read
How a week runs in market
Same four beats for 14 weeks. You can see all of it on the live dashboard, and you only hear from us when a call is yours to make.
Monday: read the numbers
Blended ROAS, MER and CPA by market from Shopify and GA4, before anyone opens an ad account.
Tuesday: kill and scale
The weakest third of creative goes. The budget moves to what's working, inside the agreed flight.
Thursday: new cuts
Six fresh vertical variants a week from creator footage, each testing one hook.
Friday: one short note
What shipped, what moved, and any decision we need from Theo by Monday.
What could go wrong
Four things, stated now. Each one has an owner and a trigger, so nobody has to invent a response in November.
A warm winter
If the prairies stay above minus twenty through December, the trigger barely fires. At that point we redeploy the cold snap budget to always-on and lower the pair target by about 1,400. We'll make that call on 20 December, and it's your decision.
Inventory runs out
The plan assumes 9,500 pairs landed by 1 October. A late container pushes the launch burst back with it, because we won't pay to advertise a sold-out size run. Your ops lead confirms the landing date to us by 15 September.
Creator claims about cold performance
Creators can say the shoe kept them warm. They can't quote temperature ratings unless your lab data supports them. Every brief includes approved wording, and we review all posts before paid amplification.
Attribution disagrees with Shopify
Platform dashboards will claim more sales than you make. We report blended MER from Shopify as the number that counts, and we use the November geo holdout to check it. The attribution window stays at seven days.
Approve by Friday 30 July
That holds the 9 August cold chamber and the 18 October launch. If you don't approve by then, we lose the chamber and launch about four weeks later, with less of the winter to sell into.
Prepared by
Kira Bjornson Managing Partner, Portage Main
Exchange District, Winnipeg MB kira@portagemain.ca
For approval by
Theo Lavallée Co-founder, Thirty Below
Call me if you'd move anything before you sign. I'd rather argue about it now than in week six.
Approve the media plan
By confirming, you approve CA$412,000 of media across the three flights, billed to Thirty Below's own ad accounts between 4 October 2027 and 21 January 2028. The CA$41,200 reserve stays unspent until you release it. Our signed fee is unchanged.